What Would Happen If Bitcoin Hit $1,000,000?

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Are There Still Good Investments to Make in 2024?

Are there still good investments to make in 2024? What still makes sense to buy? We are in the middle of the year, and many options are on the table. Let's talk about Bitcoin, Treasury Bonds, stocks like Magazine Luiza, CDBs, debentures, real estate funds, international investments, and the dollar. I’ve outlined what I believe still makes sense to invest and allocate our capital in 2024.

Were the 2024 Predictions Correct?

Everyone made predictions for this year, but did they come true? The reality is, most people got it wrong.

The Dollar

The forecasts for the dollar at the end of 2024 varied widely, but the median was around R$5.00 per 1 dollar. The most pessimistic scenario came from C6, predicting R$5.50. The optimistic outlook predicted R$4.20, but they missed the mark. The dollar is currently at R$5.70, above even the pessimistic expectations.

SELIC

The forecast for the SELIC was 9.25% for this year, and for inflation, 3.90%. Today, inflation is at 4%, and the SELIC is at 10.5%. Despite slight variations, it’s not far off from the projections.

The Stock Market

Forecasts for the Bovespa were more optimistic. Eki Research and Santander predicted 160,000 points by year-end. The most pessimistic, Goldman Sachs, projected 122,000 points, and we are currently at 124,000 points, very close to the worst-case scenario.

IFIX

The IFIX (real estate fund index) has disappointed, due to the drop in the SELIC and the less sharp drop in U.S. interest rates, leaving the index stagnant.

Who’s to Blame?

We have four possible culprits:

  • The government.
  • The fiscal situation.
  • U.S. interest rates.
  • Some global conflict.

Or is no one to blame? Leave your opinion in the comments. Every year we need to blame someone, right?

What Worked in My Portfolio in 2024?

This year, I was optimistic about Bitcoin, the Brazilian stock market, fixed income, and real estate funds. However, I was pessimistic about the international scene. Let's see how it played out:

  • The Brazilian stock market didn’t perform as well as expected.
  • The international market was surprising.
  • Fixed income performed excellently.
  • Bitcoin rose nearly 60% and became the largest position in my portfolio.

Diversification Matters

Even with the stock market down 4.85% this year and real estate funds down 5%, my portfolio is up 9.1%. Diversification was key because if I had put all my money in one place, I could have missed significant opportunities.

What Still Makes Sense to Invest in 2024?

Now, let’s talk about what I believe still makes sense to invest in this year.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin has risen nearly 60% so far. Historically, it reaches its peak six months after the halving, and we’ve seen this trend since 2012. The cost of mining has doubled, but the price hasn’t caught up yet, which could signal a positive surprise.

Tesouro IPCA+

Investing in Tesouro IPCA+ is a rare opportunity today. Rates are at 6.4% to 6.5%, which happens only a few times in a decade. This is one of the safest investments with great potential returns.

Real Estate Funds

Despite the ongoing debate over taxation, the current IFIX premium is high, which has historically brought good returns to investors. Real estate funds remain my second-largest position in my portfolio.

Stocks in the Stock Market

Currently, we have the lowest P/E ratio since the 2008 crisis. The high dollar makes Brazilian stocks cheaper for foreign investors, potentially bringing a large influx of foreign capital to Brazil.

My Favorite Stocks

  1. Banco do Brasil: This isn’t a stock that will skyrocket, but it's a solid company with a very low P/E ratio, offering a large margin of safety.
  2. Soja 3: A company in the agribusiness sector that has been growing impressively. This is a stock I’ve been watching and like a lot.

Investing Abroad?

When it comes to foreign stocks, I don’t think this is the ideal time. The dollar has risen significantly, and U.S. stocks have very high multiples. The P/E ratio of the Brazilian stock market is three times lower than the American market, making Brazil a more attractive option right now.

To recap, we talked about:

  • Bitcoin.
  • Tesouro IPCA+.
  • Real Estate Funds.
  • Stocks like Banco do Brasil and Soja 3.
  • And caution when it comes to foreign stocks.

Leave your opinion in the comments: do you agree or disagree? We're in this together! See you in the next , bye!

Key Points:

  • Market forecasts for 2024 mostly failed, especially in regard to the dollar and stock market.
  • Bitcoin, Tesouro IPCA+, and real estate funds remain good options.
  • Brazilian stocks are cheap, especially for foreign investors.
  • Be cautious with foreign investments due to the high dollar value.

Interested in these topics? Leave a comment, and let's keep the conversation going!

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